This is all conjecture, understand? But we were talking over lunch about the continuing increase in the price of gasoline. That subject has everybody talking, right? Well, crude oil has just gone comfortably over $120 per barrel and we are well on our way to a national average price of $4 per gallon for regular unleaded gasoline. What is doing this? And where is it going?

Weak Dollar

Since George W. Bush entered the White House, the value of the dollar has fallen 41%. This automatically makes the price of gasoline in dollar terms much, much higher. At dollar parity from the beginning of 2001, we would be paying $72 dollars for a barrel of oil and gasoline would be priced at between $2.25 and $2.50 using the equation from energytomorrow.org. EnergyTomorrow.org is brought to you by "The people of America's Oil and Natural Gas Industry". Their formula contends that crude oil is 72% of the cost of gasoline; refining, distribution, service stations, marketing is 16% (probably includes their profits as well); taxes are another 12%.

So, with gasoline being at a national average of $3.61 today, the weak dollar accounts for $1.36 of the cost per gallon.

Now, government policies determine the value of the dollar and even though President Bush and the Treasury state that they are in favor of a strong dollar, their actions have resulted in a weak dollar.

Crude Oil Prices

Sure, crude oil has just moved over $120 per barrel. Goldman Sachs Group was widely criticized in 2005 when they forecast a barrel of oil at $105. Now, they are talking about $150 per barrell by the end of the year. $150 would result in gasoline priced in the range of $4.90 to $5.10 per gallon. If the price per barrel rises to $200 per barrel a per gallon gasoline price of between $6.40 and $6.60 per gallon would be the result.

Big Oil?

We believe, although we have no proof, that Big Oil is also a major culprit. They do have some level of influence on the price of crude oil. After all, they drill for it, pump it, refine it and sell it. For the past half decade, it has appeared to us that Big Oil has been playing a psychological game with American drivers. They ratchet up the price of gasoline to $3.00 per gallon and everybody is pissed. Then they drop it back to $2.50 per gallon and everybody feels better. The next price peak is $3.25 and then it drops back to $2.75. The next price peak is $3.50 and then drops back to $3.00. See the pattern? Intentionally or not, they are psychologically conditioning us to higher and higher prices.

Continue reading "SIX DOLLAR A GALLON GAS" »

Posted by George Peterson at 02:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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I remember the call like it came just last week, because it did.

“Katrina, I have a new car.”

“How exciting!”

“It…it has a stick shift.”

“Even better!”

“You don’t understand! I don’t know how to drive a stick. I need you to teach me.”

“You’ve made me a very happy woman, grasshopper.”

Continue reading "Stick It To The Man" »

Posted by Katrina Ohlemacher at 01:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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Tracinda Corporation Buying Into Ford Motor Company
Kirk Kerkorian, the incredibly wealthy 90-year-old investor and businessman, has long been well known among auto-industry watchers. He was first involved with Chrysler, back in the days when Lee Iacocca was turning things around. Later, his takeover attempt also sparked the notion of merging the company with another, which ultimately led to the creation of DaimlerChrysler. There are few today, other some who retired well off the deal, who would say that was a merger that was beneficial for either company, equals or not.

After eventually getting out of the Chrysler business, Tracinda bought enough of General Motors to get a seat on the board. Company man Jerry York held that seat and pushed for a GM-Renault-Nissan tie-up. Bound by duty to stockholders to explore the option instead of dismissing it outright, Rick Wagoner and GM staff worked with Renault-Nissan for a few months to prove what we all seemed to know in the first place: A Renault-GM tie-up didn't make much sense. Kerkorian's Tracinda sold off its GM stake and went home. The end of that story, right?

Well, yes and no. Whether by the "third time's a charm" or "try, try again" schools of thought, Tracinda has been accumulating shares of Ford Motor Company since April 2, 2008, and offered today to buy more. And by more we mean enough to give Tracinda 5.6% of FoMoCo. But what does Tracinda really want? Does the company want take over a Detroit car company, no matter which? It does seem that Kerkorian is obsessed with making a major, direct impact on the automotive industry. His efforts so far have succeeded in shaking things up, often when it can be most disruptive, but not in improving the business overall.

Continue reading "Exhaust Note #9: Kerkorian is Back" »

Posted by Stephanie Brinley at 01:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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OK, here I am in Lisbon attending Nissan 360 - an event to showcase Nissan's worldwide product to worldwide media. Jetlag not being a favorite of mine, I decided to come to Lisbon a couple of days early. LAX to Amsterdam to Lisbon. Luckiily, no connections were missed and got in at 230PM right on time. Checking into the Lisbon Marriott, the desk clerk happened to mention that there was a car show beginning. How convenient, car shows are my thing.

After showering, I hopped in a cab and quickly arrived at 2008 Salao Inernacional do Automovel de Portugal. Nine Euros later I walked into Hall 1 and began the journey. The Portugal International Auto Show is not huge like Frankfurt, or Tokyo, or maybe Detroit, but it is spread over four spacious halls. Clearly the automakers did not have their A-Class displays here, but the displays were very competitive. Everybody was here - many not playing in the USA - except Opel (General Motors), Jaguar/Land Rover and Porsche were conspicuously absent (or I somehow missed them in my two sweeps of the show). The show did have many smaller cars that are available in Europe and likely would do pretty well in the USA given today's fuel price environment.

I don't intend on going through the show car-by-car, but I thought seeing some highlights would be interessting. Here goes.

Continue reading "2008 Portuguese International Auto Show" »

Posted by George Peterson at 02:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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I’ve never owned a major manufacturing corporation worth millions, never employed Union workers and I’ve never played the game of ‘Chicken’; but I’ve heard all are risky endeavors. In the case of American Axle they are dealing with all three variables concurrently. They are said to be ‘sitting on “$344 Million” (AN), employing 3,650 UAW members and American Axle CEO Richard Dauch is currently playing ‘Chicken’ with UAW President Ron Gettelfinger. Are we taking bets? I’m really trying to figure out what I would do in either position and whose side I’m really on.

What happened?
Since February 26 all 3,650 UAW member walked off the job leaving American Axle production in a lurch. In the last two months this strike has affected progress at as many as 30 GM plants. American Axle produces parts for GM's full-size pickups and SUVs, the hot new Chevrolet Malibu, and many others. This means almost 50K GM employees have been affected.

Continue reading "Exhaust Note #8: American Axle Hasn’t Flinched" »

Posted by Keagan Patrick at 04:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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Chrysler LLC has not been shy about going after a partner. Chrysler needs access to the expertise in small cars that they don't have, as well as to benefit from the kinds of economies of scale necessary to make any sort of profit on vehicles expected to sell at the bottom end of the scale. After signing with Chinese maker Chery for help in the international arena, announcements have come on new relationships with Nissan. The OEM agreements with Nissan announced this week are examples of two companies finding a win-win relationship.

Nissan and Chrysler Serve as OEM Supplier and Client
Often deals like this are announced with one partner clearly benefiting more than the other, no matter how many times the phrase "win-win" is used during the presentation. But in this case, the relationship will benefit both partners. Each company is contributing in areas where they have expertise and market success, areas where solo development costs are prohibitive. Each company is also using production capacity that might otherwise be difficult to fill.

Continue reading "Chrysler and Nissan: Sharing Can be Fun" »

Posted by Stephanie Brinley at 03:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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I recently attended a presentation with a panel of Indian-market experts, at a Society of Automotive Analysts meeting. Much was covered, discussed, and analyzed, and we were shown more numbers than you could shake a stick at.

A couple of points stuck in my head. Among them: Indian companies and people seem more patient and willing to learn, yet still ambitious and effective. Another: As a basic cultural value, the Indian population doesn't seem to care all that much for cars.

Tata is Ready to Learn
Tata Motors has been making vehicles since 1954. They aren't newcomers, though most of their history is with commercial vehicles. The company is expanding on the global scene slowly and carefully. The purchase of Jaguar Land Rover is the first step for playing with in the big leagues.

Continue reading "Exhuast Note #7: Tata Shows Patience is a Virtue" »

Posted by Stephanie Brinley at 03:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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Break the Cycle of Apathy

Ford Division had its national dealer meeting in Las Vegas during the week of April 7 with more than 3,000 dealers in attendance. The Bellagio Hotel was over-flowing with Ford logos, banners and geegaws. At the same time, Ford was selling dealers on its new advertising campaign "Ford: Drive One". With "Drive One" as its platform, Ford is trying to create a 750,000-strong army of advocates to get consumers to reconsider its vehicles. Ford wants to break the "Cycle of Apathy" that appears to surround consideration of their products.

Ford figures if it can jazz up employees, retirees, dealers and dealership employees that word about Ford's quality gains and new products will spread virally through the North American auto market.. This is in addition to Ford's huge customer base and number of Ford enthusiasts that can be brought into the campaign, person-to-person outreach is the backbone of Ford's multimillion-dollar "Drive One" campaign, which started this month. As Jim Farley, Ford's Group Vice President of Marketing and Communications said, "There are thousands of enthusiasts with Ford Oval tattoos. I can count those with Toyota tattoos on one hand." The key is to get them working together to stimulate consideration for the Ford brand.

Ford started in early April briefing employees and retirees on the plan. Last week, Ford told its dealers about the new campaign in sessions in Las Vegas.

Unlike the "Bold Moves" campaign in 2006, Ford promises that Drive One will be around for years. Time will tell how long Ford management continues the Drive One message. Too often, when new management gets in place, the first thing to change is the advertising theme. (After all, what was the first thing Jim Farley did? Change the ad themes).

Dealers Involved in Developing Drive One Strategy and Implementation

Ford included members of their dealer council in the development of the new Drive One strategy. During many meetings in Dearborn in January and numerous conference calls and countless emails, the strategy evolved that results in Drive One. On a broader base, Ford surveyed more than 700 dealers as it developed the campaign. When including regional and local advertising by dealers, Ford says it annually spends $1.5 billion on advertising in the United States including Tier 1 through Tier 3 advertising. In the case of Drive One, Ford says they have buy in from not only Tier 2 advertisers (regional), but also Tier 3 (individual dealers).

The biggest difference at this dealer meeting is that Ford executives really listened to what dealers had to say, said Jeff Robberson of Robberson Ford-Lincoln-Mercury in Bend, Ore.

Engineers at the Dealer Show

For the first time ever at a dealer show, Ford brought in more than 60 company engineers to share specifics of the automaker's technological and product accomplishments with the people who are trying to sell vehicles. Many of the engineers had never met a dealer before in their career. This is typical of the isolation product engineers often operate in at a major auto company in the USA. (Asian and European manufacturers are much more likely to be giving their engineers hands-on, face-to-face experience with dealers and consumers).

Farley gave the example of an engineer demonstrating Ford's soybean-based seat foam that provides about 5% of the oil content in the seat foams in several Ford vehicles today. She got more than 100 requests for samples from dealers. Many of the dealers are in farming communities but never knew that Ford was using material grown by their prospective customers. Now that they know, the dealers can market that connection more directly to local consumers.

Employees... and Face-to-Face, Town-to-Town

Ford employees are appearing in advertisements and Internet videos. The campaign is focused on telling people about Ford's accomplishments in four areas: QGSS - Quality, Green, Safe and Smart.

While the employees will be touting QGSS, Ford is also using a spinoff of its 2007 research based ad theme where a Ford vehicle is put in the hands of a person for a week who presently drives a competitor and reacts to the Ford. In the Drive One scenario, Ford gives a Ford vehicle to a person driving a competitive product for a week. At the end of the week, the initial driver passes the vehicle to a friend so they can experience it as well. During the hand-off, Ford captures the transaction on video and uses it in their ads. Initially, Southern California and Atlanta are the areas used for the trials. Additional cities will be added as time goes on and even some individual dealers are thinking about doing this on their own.

Ford's Press Release on Drive One is found below the fold:

Continue reading "Ford: Drive One" »

Posted by George Peterson at 09:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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As CAFE standards continue to tighten their grip on auto manufacturers, decisions about next generation vehicles are becoming more complicated. While the Japanese are embracing alternative power, fuels, and materials, in the U.S., there are some basics that must be considered.

Case in point: The popular Ford Mustang. The 2020 CAFE rules, expected to start showing up in 2013 or so, will make the current engine lineup in the more powerful Mustang vehicles, ah... um... problematic. On the surface, an engine diet and workout program might give life to the car from an engineering point of view, but what about the perception of the public?

Continue reading "Will Ford Ditch the V8 in the Mustang?" »

Posted by dbarrett at 11:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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Video is rapidly becoming an important component for any new, magazine, or entertainment website. At VehicleVoice, we’ve been using video for nearly two years and we want to make certain you know how useful and entertaining our video stories can be.

Our video stories are typically fairly short, so you can enjoy them during a coffee break, or while waiting for that report to print. Two recent surveys show that more than three quarters of the people who use the Internet watch an hour or more of video every week. And, a huge percentage of that audience takes advantage of the lunch hour to enjoy the various video clips and stories now being posted everywhere from CNN to political campaigns to your own private website -- to, yup, right here at VehicleVoice.

Continue reading "Video Reviews, Test Drives, and Opinion from VehicleVoice" »

Posted by dbarrett at 10:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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On Friday, March 7, two announcements were made that impact the Southern California car culture and, to some extent, the global auto industry.

Volvo Cars of North America Returns to Rockleigh Headquarters

The first was that Volvo Cars of North America is returning to its former headquarters in Rockleigh, New Jersey at the foot of the Tappan Zee Bridge. Beautiful location and much closer to Sweden, but we can't help but wonder how the Volvo mindset in the USA will change with a New Jersey perspective rather than one from California? But, this does make sense.

Jaguar and Land Rover Likely Will Move to Jag's Old HQ in Mahwah

In due time, Jaguar and Land Rover locations will very likely move from Irvine, California back to Jaguar's old HQ in Mahway, New Jersey. One veteran Land Rover manager quipped, "Well, I've worked for Land Rover through four owners. One more (Tata) won't be too much different."

This means that Ford's Premier Automotive Group headquarters building in Irvine will be pretty empty except for some Ford regional and PR offices. This is also where Ford has some advanced design activities.

Chrysler Pacifica to Shut Down, Operations Relocated to Auburn Hills

The second announcement was that Chrysler is closing its Chrysler Pacifica operation in Carlsbad. Used as an advanced concept design center and monitoring operation, several Chrysler show cars were designed at Chrysler Pacifica and in the heyday, were fabricated by Metalcrafters in Fountain Valley. Here is Chrysler's blurb on the demise of Pacifica: "Increasingly, we are leveraging resources worldwide, forming new joint ventures and alliances and consolidating operations in order to better achieve global balance and manage fixed costs. These moves are designed to help Chrysler become a more globally focused manufacturer, with design, engineering, sourcing and a local presence to serve local customers.

As such, we are closing the Pacifica Advance Product Design Center, consolidating the Advance Design function in Auburn Hills. Advance Design remains an integral part of our future design efforts, led by Trevor Creed, Senior Vice President -- Design.

These changes set the stage for Chrysler's future global growth efforts, which also include our intent to establish global expertise in design, engineering and sourcing through centers of excellence. These actions will help the Company meet its long-term globalization goals."

Expect Many Staffers to Refuse to Move - Nissan's Experience

Volvo, Chcysler Pacifica and soon Jaguar Land Rover will lose valuable and experienced staff who will refuse to relocate out of Southern California. This is what happened when Nissan North America moved from Gardena to Nashville, Tennessee in 2006. Less than 30% of their folks went with them and it has been turmoil ever sense.

All of these operations (with the exception of Nissan North America which was "born" in Southern California) moved to Southern California to be part of the most trend-setting area in the USA and arguably the tip of the spear in advanced automotive design in the world. In the case of PAG, it can be argued that staffers spent too much time at their desks to really benefit from being here. But designers need to breathe the air and see the colors and vibrancy of the area. Viewing the world as a designer in Detroit is, simply, different.

Posted by George Peterson at 01:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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2008 Promises to be Recent Low in New Vehicle Sales

At a recent meeting I was giving a presentation on the State of the Automotive Industry (SOI) in the United States. The SOI includes information on consumer expectations, state of the economy, the growth in nameplates and AutoPacific's forecast for the industry through 2013. Clearly, the industry is in the dumps in 2008 with sales being forecast to be 15.8-million units. Sales could even be lower with the first two months coming in at a rate of about 15.2-million units.

Record Sales Years on the Horizon

So, in light of this Annis Horribilis (quoting Queen Elizabeth in 1997 "Horrible Year"), the AutoPacific forecast for light vehicle sales going forward peaks at about 18-million units in 2013. That's after three years when overall sales are higher than the previous 2000 record of 17.3-million units.

Economic Doldrums - Short Term

Several things are keeping sales depressed right now. The sub-prime mess, credit crisis, devaluation of the dollar, slow down in housing, high fuel prices, etc. All negatively impact sales and consumer confidence in wanting to acquire a new vehicle. These issues impact brands and vehicle classes and vehicle lines differently. For instance, full size pickups are hurt because commercial users defer purchases until the housing sector picks again and retail users who have primarily been buying big pickups for personal use can decide not to buy a new one or add one to their family fleets. The dynamics are really churning.

However, the factors stressing out the economy are generally cyclical and right themselves over time.

GenY to the Rescue

But the ace in the hole, as the economy bounces back, is the emergence of Generation Y (Those car buyers who today are 18 to 30 years of age). GenY is the largest population cohort - equaling or surpassing the Boomer generation (43 - 61). They are just now getting into their vehicle acquisition and family formation years, so they will stimulate sales. At the same time, Boomers are not going quietly into the night. They will continue buying new vehicles well after retirement. So, demographic shifts will provide much of the push for higher sales going forward.

Don Esmond at Toyota has said a 20,000,000 unit year by the middle of the next decade would not be surprising. Don't know about 20,000,000, but 18-million does seem possible.

Posted by George Peterson at 10:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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What's happening?

February, 2008 vehicle sales are now out, so we have two months worth of data. What's happening? Some of the highlights:

-- Last year light vehicle sales were 16.15 million units. For the first two months of this year, the SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is about 15.4 million units. So it looks like sales are down about 7% so far.

-- Car sales are down about 4%, and light truck sales (includes pickups, SUVs, minvans etc) are down 10%. So there is a shift from "truck" to more fuel efficient cars.

-- Within car sales, small car sales are up (+4%) and all the rest (mid-size, large and luxury) are all down - especially large car, -28%.

-- Within "truck", the subsegment down the most is Minivans (-26%). Probably not a fuel economy issue, more likely a style/fashion issue.

-- Most major manufactures sales are down (Chrysler -15%, GM -8%, Ford -7% on a sales days adjusted basis), but not all: Mercedes-Benz sales, for example are up 5% over the same period last year. New product (essentially the C-Class) trumps the down stock market, down real estate market, and increased fuel price issue, at least for these buyers. Rolls-Royce sales are pretty small, but they are up 100% year over year. Somebody has money to spend! Hyundai sales on the other hand are down 17%. perhaps those buyers are more impacted by the economy.

-- Toyota Prius sales were down 14% in February, but are +6% calendar year to date. Perhaps this reflects availability more than actual demand?

So there you have it...some of the highlights. Generally, sales are down, but not catastrophically. Despite the negative economic signs and consumer confidence signs there is still a chance for a 15.5 - 16 million industry this year. Many forecast a better 2nd half. I hope that isn't just wishful thinking.

Posted by Jim Hossack at 03:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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We reported on the Verve hatchback and sedan concepts that Ford showed at the Frankfurt and Detroit auto shows during the 2007-08 show season, and now we bring the news that Ford has confirmed the production name: Fiesta! The official reveal of the European three- and five-door hatchback versions is in Geneva in March. When the U.S. sees the car in 2010, it will be in sedan form much like the Detroit 2008 Verve concept.

Ford is evaluating offering the hatchback in the States as well. Hatchbacks have been gaining in popularity in the States, but this market so far still buys far more sedans than any other car shape. The hatchback would be a nice addition to the U.S. Fiesta range, but the sedan is a must.

Fiesta is a cutesy name, but Ford already owns it. It has equity all over the world, and little, if any, negative baggage in the States. Yeah, there was once a Fiesta sold here, but who really remembers it? For the U.S. market, a bad choice would have been reviving Aspire or Festiva names. The success of this product in the States will depend on the product itself, not whether it's named Verve or Fiesta.

Continue reading "Fiesta Revival: Ford Confirms Name of Global Small Car" »

Posted by Stephanie Brinley at 08:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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When I arrived in Chicago night of Feb. 5, forecasters were predicting a nigh-apocalyptic snowfall. But I'm from Detroit, and I was in Chicago, and I like to think that upper Midwesterners are made of sterner stuff than the norm.

Still, I knew I'd need to fortify myself against the coming snow and arctic cold. How does the traveler far from home and operating at the mercy of automakers and their PR departments manage such a feat? The image above should provide a clue, as should the photo after the jump.

Continue reading ""How I Spent My First Media Preview" by Katrina, Age 27" »

Posted by Katrina Ohlemacher at 11:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

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This has nothing to do with cars or trucks, but about the halftime shows shown at extravaganzas like the Super Bowl and BCS Championship Game. Our stories about auto company and Bridgestone ads stimulated the idea.

Super Bowl Halftime Lame - Bring On the Marching Bands

I don't know how much Tom Petty cost to entertain the nation for twenty minutes, but it was too much. And it's not that I don't like Tom Petty. I have just gotten sick of these extravaganza halftime shows that Bowl Games think are necessary to put on while people are getting their snacks and going to the john. At least Petty did not have a wardrobe malfunction and the manufactured crowd was on their best behavior - young and energetic.

God Wants Marching Bands: But, God intended for football halftime shows to feature marching bands. Not Tom Petty. Not Janet Jackaon. From time immemorial, marching bands have been featured at every high school and college game. Some bands are military bands. Some are pageant bands. Some do a little of both.

Military Bands - Precision and Discipline: The military bands have the toughest job. They will have an eight minute drill in which they continuously change formation from one geometric pattern to another. Countermarches. Minstrel turns. Freeze steps. Parallelograms. Squares. All precisely designed to amaze the audience. Texas A&M is a rare example of a military band. I say rare, because a military band takes a lot of practice to make look good. Lines have to be straight. Timing has to be perfect and the music has to be great. Takes a huge amount of discipline.

Pageant Bands - Easier than Military: The pageant bands may begin a show with a military fanfare, but then evolve into designs and pictures that usually have the band members wandering from one spot to another. Much more chaotic than military bands. But the fans seem to like them and it's easier to train a pageant band than a military band.

National Band Contest: So, here's the idea. Scrap these halftime concerts and have a national band contest. The national band contest would end at the Super Bowl where the best high school marching band in the country would go against the best university marching band in the country. I guess you could have military and pageant band sections. The university bands would be judged by conference - an ACC Champ, a Big Ten Champ, a Pac Ten Champ, etc. Then at the national championship game - the BCS game, the best college band would be selected. High schools would be selected on a state-by-state basis with state winners moving to regional, sectional and, finally, national.

Still have to find a way to judge military bands vs. pageant bands, but there must be a way. Just find a way to get us away from the terrible halftime shows the BCS and Super Bowl have subjected us to for the past decades.

Posted by George Peterson at 02:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)

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Katrina Ohlemacher concentrated on the car company ads in Sunday's Super Bowl, but there were a few that I wanted to mention.

Bridgestone Tires was the overall sponsor of the Super Bowl this year. They sponsored the lame halftime show featuring Tom Petty and had two ads showcasing the maneuverability of the Bridgestone Tires. Early in the broadcast, the Bridgestone squirrel ad was aired. Brilliant! Probably not too expensive to produce and kept you on the edge of your seat to see what would happen to squirrel as the unbadged BMW 5-Series barrelled down on it. Great stuff. (could have deleted the cricket, however).

The companion ad had Richard Simmons in it. I would have pipped that one until I watched it a second time on YouTube. As the driver approaches Simmons, h