February CYTD 2008 Vehicle Sales
What's happening?
February, 2008 vehicle sales are now out, so we have two months worth of data. What's happening? Some of the highlights:
-- Last year light vehicle sales were 16.15 million units. For the first two months of this year, the SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is about 15.4 million units. So it looks like sales are down about 7% so far.
-- Car sales are down about 4%, and light truck sales (includes pickups, SUVs, minvans etc) are down 10%. So there is a shift from "truck" to more fuel efficient cars.
-- Within car sales, small car sales are up (+4%) and all the rest (mid-size, large and luxury) are all down - especially large car, -28%.
-- Within "truck", the subsegment down the most is Minivans (-26%). Probably not a fuel economy issue, more likely a style/fashion issue.
-- Most major manufactures sales are down (Chrysler -15%, GM -8%, Ford -7% on a sales days adjusted basis), but not all: Mercedes-Benz sales, for example are up 5% over the same period last year. New product (essentially the C-Class) trumps the down stock market, down real estate market, and increased fuel price issue, at least for these buyers. Rolls-Royce sales are pretty small, but they are up 100% year over year. Somebody has money to spend! Hyundai sales on the other hand are down 17%. perhaps those buyers are more impacted by the economy.
-- Toyota Prius sales were down 14% in February, but are +6% calendar year to date. Perhaps this reflects availability more than actual demand?
So there you have it...some of the highlights. Generally, sales are down, but not catastrophically. Despite the negative economic signs and consumer confidence signs there is still a chance for a 15.5 - 16 million industry this year. Many forecast a better 2nd half. I hope that isn't just wishful thinking.
