Powertrain Trends at NAIAS
New Game; Many Players; Winners Unclear!
There was a lot of action at the North American International Auto Show in Detroit this week. Clearly the industry is more interested in Green, and more interested in fuel economy (well, at least in legislated CAFE, Corporate Average Fuel Economy requirements) than ever before.
Virtually all major manufacturers are working on clean diesels, gas hybrids, diesel hybrids, plug-in hybrids, hybrids with nickel-metal hydride batteries, with some form of lithium batteries and with batteries in conjunction with ultra capacitors. Most manufacturers are working on significant improvements to conventional gas engines, some with direct fuel injection, and some with direct injection coupled with one or more turbochargers (what Ford calls EcoBoost). Cylinder deactivation and smaller displacements with fewer cylinders is a popular approach. Ethanol has its advocates (primarily GM), and also its detractors. And in the long term (maybe VERY long term) hydrogen fuel cells show exciting promise.
Technology Up... Prices WAY UP!!!!!!!!!
So what is the winner? Well, the consumer, for sure will have more choice than ever.But in a technology sense, it is entirely unclear what technology will dominate in the near future. Perhaps it is a mix of many approaches for awhile, as it was 100 years ago (between gasoline, electric power and steam) before one technology dominates.
Meanwhile, the cost (and price) of powertrains is likely to up... way up. Probably up by more than the fuel savings offset, at least at anything like today's fuel prices. How high is up? Nobody really knows, but perhaps HD pickups give us a clue: diesels provide a 20-30% fuel economy gain, but are priced about $7,000 higher than (semi) equivalent gas engines.
American Drivers Unwilling to Sacrifice for Better Fuel Economy
It is not clear that Americans are really ready to pay that much for a slightly better environment and some reduction in the dependence on foreign oil. Somehow, it seems to me that for most Americans to truly embrace all this new technology and the associated costs, fuel prices will have to double, or maybe triple, effectively reaching European levels.
Meantime, what en exciting race!
